The intense three-way battle for 2nd

Will it be Aston Martin, Mercedes or Ferrari who emerges as this year's runner-up?

This year’s fight between Aston Martin, Mercedes, and Ferrari is primed to be a titanic slog.

We’re only three races into 2023, yet each team has looked worthy at some stage of being the runner-up behind Red Bull.

I will not be surprised if the fight continues until the season finale.

At the moment, Aston Martin has the upper hand in the standings:

• Aston Martin: 65 points

• Mercedes: 56 points

• Ferrari: 26 points

Their initial success is largely thanks to the ever-bullish Fernando Alonso, who has finished on the podium in all three races this year.

“For us, it’s all happy days at the moment,” Alonso said after Australia.

But, as the season progresses, Aston Martin need to make sure they are not caught out by development.

Mercedes displayed a dogged tenacity to improve throughout 2022, overcoming bouncing problems and turning themselves into one-time race winners.

Already this year, they’ve improved from a torrid season opener in Bahrain to Lewis Hamilton standing on the second step of the podium in Australia, their best result so far.

“To be fighting with the Aston Martins is amazing for us,” Hamilton said afterwards.

Mercedes and Aston Martin have actually had similar pace in the last two races.

Alonso spent nearly his entire afternoon in Australia sitting behind Hamilton, unable to get past. “Mercedes were very fast … I could not match the pace,” he said.

Aston Martin team boss Mike Krack said all the teams were now “very, very close” and Aston Martin needed to keep their heads down.

“We need to give 100% at all times to be able to maintain this position,” he said.

Alonso, meanwhile, is wary about development moving forward.

“From now on, maybe we see the level of the teams changing a little bit, race-by-race, depending on who brings an upgrade that is good enough,” he said.

Mercedes have been planning big changes to their car.

A major overhaul of their unique sidepods is expected, but in Australia, team boss Toto Wolff told Sky Sports F1 nothing was coming until Imola at the earliest.

That’s still three races away.

Still, Wolff said they were making “good steps” and the upgrades were about “consolidating our place between Ferrari, Aston Martin and us”.

His mention of Ferrari there is fascinating because it remains to be seen how they’ll slot into this fight.

Ferrari have raw pace. They were the quickest team behind Red Bull during qualifying in Bahrain and Saudi Arabia.

But Ferrari’s races so far have been dreadful.

Charles Leclerc’s power unit blew up in Bahrain, which gave him a grid drop for the next race. Then in Australia, he crashed out on the opening lap.

The team’s Australia pain was made worse by a late race penalty for Carlos Sainz. That dropped him out of the points.

Leclerc said it’s been the “worst start to the season ever”, while Sainz has suggested a change in Ferrari’s car concept is now needed.

Yet, Ferrari’s new team boss, Fred Vasseur, remains surprisingly optimistic.

He told Autosport that they were not changing concept, remarking: “We are sticking to the plan”.

And despite scoring no points in Australia, Vasseur said the team has “taken a step forward in terms of pure performance”.

“We are moving in the right direction,” he said.

So why is Vasseur so staunchly positive?

It could be because Ferrari’s pace during the Australia race was, in his words, “decent and consistent” - an encouraging sign given it’s been their weakness.

Ferrari lost ground during the races in Bahrain and Saudi Arabia because they could not make their tyres last. This is no doubt what needs to change.

Ferrari have the pace in qualifying, but to fight with Aston Martin and Mercedes, they need to transfer that performance into races.

If Ferrari does that, then it’s anyone’s guess who’ll emerge as 2023’s runner-up.