Where Red Bull and Sergio Perez stand

Red Bull can live with blunders from Perez, but only if their rivals aren't fast enough to regularly beat Max Verstappen.

If Red Bull finally faces real competition in 2024, Sergio Perez could become a big liability.

Perez’s performance throughout the recent Japanese Grand Prix was abysmal. Not only did he qualify seven-tenths behind teammate Max Verstappen, but he had to retire early in the race after crashing into Kevin Magnussen. He was given a 5-second penalty for it.

Awkwardly, that crash came just one week after a similar one in Singapore, where Perez slammed into Alex Albon. He was also penalised for this.

These two incidents are just a few of the mistakes Perez has made in 2023.

Earlier in the season, he failed to qualify inside the top ten for five consecutive race weekends. In Zandvoort, the first race after the summer break, Perez lost a podium finish after he was penalised for speeding in the pit lane in torrential conditions.

Moments before the collision with Magnussen.

Perez has been awfully inconsistent this season. He’s never been on the podium for more than two races in a row, whereas teammate Verstappen has graced the podium at every race except for Singapore.

Still, Red Bull has unflinchingly backed Perez throughout the season.

In Zandvoort, Red Bull boss Christian Horner publicly declared that his seat at Red Bull would be safe for 2024. “He will be our driver in 2024,” Horner said.

This relaxed approach is fascinating given Red Bull’s infamous reputation for quickly getting rid of drivers who aren’t delivering the goods. Examples include Daniil Kvyat, Pierre Gasly, Alex Albon, Brendon Hartley, and Nyck de Vries.

But then again, Perez’s mistakes haven’t really cost Red Bull anything this year, simply because they’re so far ahead of the competition. Max Verstappen has won 13 out of 16 races, giving him enough points to lead the Constructors’ Championship all on his own.

Additionally, there’s an upside to Perez’s inconsistency. It means Red Bull doesn’t have to deal with ugly exchanges that often happen when two teammates drive at a similar level. This was a problem Red Bull previously had when Verstappen was teammates with Daniel Ricciardo from 2016 to 2018.

So, in the current season, it’s easy to understand why Red Bull is happy to continue with Perez. But, keeping him as Verstappen’s teammate for 2024 does pose a risk.

If Red Bull’s mammoth competitive edge evaporates next year, Perez’s results will start to matter for the championship.

Red Bull’s closest rivals - Mercedes, Ferrari and McLaren - have F1’s most highly-regarded driver pairings. Mercedes has George Russell and Lewis Hamilton; Ferrari has Charles Leclerc and Carlos Sainz; and McLaren has Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri.

There’s no weak link driver there. Red Bull is different because they clearly have a “first” and “second” dynamic.

Thus, in a 2024 scenario where Mercedes, Ferrari and McLaren are just as fast as Red Bull, Perez’s mistakes and inconsistency would damage his team’s championship hopes.

And in that scenario, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Red Bull trying to replace Perez with either Daniel Ricciardo or Yuki Tsunoda - both of whom will be driving full-time at junior team AlphaTauri.

Still, it’s worth stressing immensely that this is purely a hypothetical “what if” situation.

If it goes the other way and Red Bull continues to dominate F1 like they have this year, Perez will be safe at Red Bull, regardless of how he performs. His current contract keeps him there until the end of 2024.

Interestingly, earlier this month, Perez dropped his first real hint that 2024 could be his final season with Red Bull. He told DAZN Espana that he would look “for other alternatives” in 2025, saying it was important to have “an environment where I feel I can contribute”.