Goodbye Hungary, Hello Belgium
My thoughts on McLaren’s ominous form, Red Bull's driver situation, and a fascinating graph.
I want to start off today by sharing some reflections on the Hungarian GP.
After qualifying, I was convinced a cracking race lay ahead. Lewis Hamilton was on pole and the all-McLaren second row felt ominous. I thought Max Verstappen would finally feel the pressure.
Unfortunately, I was wrong - and wrong in a big way. Verstappen didn’t just win the Hungarian GP, he obliterated the rest of the field. After he took the lead at the start, he checked out with ease. His eventual 33-second winning margin was the largest recorded this year.
Ultimately, the race in Hungary wasn’t what it promised and I think that was at least partially due to the problems I highlighted a few weeks back.
As I wrote then, F1 is struggling to produce tense and exciting races because overtaking is harder, there’s minimal strategic variation, Red Bull is dominant, and there are no sudden crashes or retirements throwing a spanner in the works.
McLaren’s resurgence
I wrote about McLaren’s phenomenal turnaround earlier this week and I think it’s incredibly good news for F1. McLaren has now had the 2nd or 3rd-quickest car in the field for the past three races thanks to a major upgrade package first introduced in Austria. If that level of performance can be sustained, then McLaren will soon wade into the fight over 2nd, 3rd, 4th and 5th in the constructors’ championship.
The current championship order for those four positions is Mercedes (223), Aston Martin (184), Ferrari (167), and McLaren (87). But, if you only look at points scored in the past three races, the order has been: McLaren (70), Mercedes (56), Ferrari (45) and Aston Martin (30).
McLaren still has some way to go to catch the three teams ahead of them, but with the season only halfway done, the opportunity is certainly there. Hopefully, this four-way championship battle will make up for the excitement that’s been lost with Red Bull holding such a comfortable lead.
Daniel Ricciardo
I don't want to dwell on Ricciardo for too long, but I feel I should bring it up given I was wrong about how he would perform on his return to F1. I expected Ricciardo to struggle; he was in a difficult car against a teammate who’s been in relatively good form.
Yet, Ricciardo looked to be a match for Tsunoda throughout the entire weekend in Hungary. His previous McLaren demons did not prove to be a hindrance at all. Most impressively, Ricciardo qualified ahead of Tsunoda by 0.013s and snuck into Q2. He also finished ahead of Tsunoda in the race, despite being inadvertently caught up in a crash on the first lap. Not bad, not bad at all. The next step is proving that this is the consistent level he can race at.
So, what to do with Sergio Perez?
In my view, Yuki Tsunoda and Daniel Ricciardo are now in a rehearsal to see which one of them is best suited to eventually replace Sergio Perez at Red Bull. That replacement could happen for the 2024 season, but I think it’s much more likely in 2025 when Perez will be out of contract.
This year, Red Bull has stood by Perez during his struggles, and that’s understandable because those mistakes haven’t actually cost Red Bull anything. The team is so dominant that even if Perez had scored 0 points this year, Red Bull would still be in the lead of the constructors’ championship. This “no consequences” environment gives Perez a cushion for now, but mistakes will become untenable if other teams catch up - and they have two high-performing drivers.
Ricciardo and Tsunoda are now auditioning for that somewhat-distant eventuality, in my view. Will a clear favourite emerge later this year?
A fascinating graph
During the weekend in Hungary, I saw a super fascinating graph, which provided great insight into the strengths of F1’s top teams. The graph came from Formula Data Analysis, which is a superb account to follow on Twitter if you’re crazy about F1 data. This is the graph is below, taken from Twitter.
The reason it’s so fascinating is that it clearly demonstrates the strengths of Red Bull, Mercedes and McLaren. The colours indicate which parts of the track each team had an edge in during qualifying. Speaking generally, it shows:
Red Bull is quickest toward the end of the straights
McLaren owns the fastest corners
Mercedes succeeds through the slow corners
Just as interesting, the graph also shows each team was “fastest” for about a third of the lap.
Belgium
F1 is off to Spa-Francorchamps this weekend for the last race before the four-week summer break. Apart from the 2021 near-cancellation, this race usually produces a great spectacle. It’s a historic circuit, but also one with fantastic overtaking opportunities and breathtaking speed. Last year, Max Verstappen started down in 14th and quickly navigated through the field to win with ease. It was a classy performance.
Unfortunately, Spa is likely to be a breeze for Red Bull. The race in Hungary suggested their new upgrades are working well and the graph above shows their speed superiority is at the end of straights, something which Spa has plenty of.
Then again, it is going to be a sprint weekend, so perhaps being suddenly thrust into qualifying might be a hindrance for Red Bull? Let’s hope so for excitement’s sake. Additionally, the weather forecast is for rain across the entire weekend. The chance of rain on Friday is 80%, Saturday is 60% and Sunday is 40%, according to F1.com. Rain always creates unpredictability and difficulty, though Verstappen typically overcomes it and excels.
That’s all for now. Cheers for reading this week’s edition. I hope you enjoy the weekend.