Best thing about Formula 1? The unpredictability
I got a few things wrong this year - and those mistakes perfectly illustrate how difficult it is to make predictions about Formula 1.
It is now 98 days until Formula 1 returns for 2023.
Formula 1 is always unpredictable. Proof can be found by simply looking back on this blog.
Many of my musings for 2022 turned out to be totally incorrect. I thought it would be fun to revisit these predictions, as they now stand as reminders of 2022’s more unexpected moments.
For starters, I wrote off Mercedes.
After they missed out on a win in Mexico, I said it was “unlikely” that they would get a victory in the final two races of the year.
They would “just have to settle with their second-place finishes”, I wrote.
A few days later in Brazil, George Russell captured an emotional and famous win for Mercedes, their first of the year.
The win was so unexpected that even Mercedes boss Toto Wolff wasn’t sure why they were so quick.
I also didn’t pick Sebastian Vettel’s retirement from Formula 1.
Back in July, I saw that his contract was running out and thought people would want to know what his situation was.
I wrote a post and chose this headline: “Sebastian Vettel still has more to give”. In my first line, I wrote that Vettel had a “clear intention” to continue with Aston Martin.
Three days later, he announced his retirement.
I was so embarrassed that I amended the post online and added an author’s note explaining what happened.
The post is now a fitting reminder of just how sudden and unexpected Vettel’s retirement was.
Vettel’s retirement also, in a way, caused my next mistake.
Before his shock announcement, I had written about how this year’s silly season/driver market wouldn’t be that exciting.
That was absolutely wrong.
Vettel’s retirement sparked an extraordinary set of contract shenanigans during the summer break.
Vettel’s vacant seat was gobbled up by Fernando Alonso.
That led to Alpine hastily announcing Oscar Piastri as their new race driver, even though Piastri had already signed a deal with McLaren.
While I didn’t see this chaos coming, I did correctly predict that Piastri would be one of its central characters. In my post about the silly season, I said the young Australian would be “the biggest news in the driver market”.
Now, I don’t want you to leave this piece thinking I got everything wrong this year. These were notable missteps, but some of my predictions were pretty much on the money.
I picked Alpine to conquer the midfield, saying just three races into 2022 that they “could be Formula 1’s fastest midfield competitor”.
Alpine went on to beat McLaren for 4th in the Constructors’ Championship.
Also, when Oscar Piastri’s contract with McLaren was revealed, I was pretty quick to point out that Ricciardo would be under pressure to find a race seat for 2023.
He never did. He is now set to spend 2023 as Red Bull’s third driver.
So, at least this blog is worth something!